Main themes in the next few days



Business Confidence

Data releases continue on business confidence in July (ISM indices for the US, PMIs for all the others). After Chinese data, which recovered further (manufacturing index up from 51.2 to 52.8), focus is now on USA data (manufacturing ISM on Monday afternoon, expected to improve from 52.6 to 53.5, and services ISM on Wednesday, forecast to drop to 55 from 57.1 previously). In the Eurozone, the final PMI readings should confirm an ongoing improvement of confidence thanks to the lifting of the lockdown.

US Employment

On Friday, labour market data for July will be released in the US and should outline a moderation in the pace of growth of nonfarm payrolls after two strong monthly increases (consensus forecast: +1.57 million, from 4.8 million in June). The unemployment rate is expected to decrease further, from 11.1% to 10.5%, whereas hourly wages should be up by 4.2% y/y (from 5% in June).

Eurozone Industrial Output

Between Thursday and Friday, data will be released on June industrial output in the main Eurozone countries (Germany, France and Italy). Expectations point to a further recovery of activity, thanks to the ongoing easing of contagion containment measures.


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